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We read with great interest the commentary by Boland and Savides (Gut 2001;48:449–50) on our paper “Flexible sigmoidoscopy and the changing distribution of colorectal cancer: implications for screening” (Gut 2001;48:522–5). The authors make several important points about the changing pattern of distribution of colorectal cancer and the possible reasons for the changes we observed. Our data showed an increased percentage of colorectal cancers diagnosed proximal to the splenic flexure between 1976–78 and 1990–97. As Boland and Savides point out, this change may be linked to a true increase in the incidence of proximal cancers or to a reduction in the incidence of distal and rectal tumours owing to the widespread use of flexible sigmoidoscopy and the consequent removal of premalignant adenomas.
We recently carried out further analysis of data from the Northern Ireland Colorectal Cancer Registry for the years 1995–97. The results of this analysis are shown in table 1 together with our previously published data for the years 1976–78. All incidences were age standardised per 100 000 for each sex using the world standard population.
These values show that the age standardised incidence of colonic carcinoma has increased in both sexes over the period studied (proximal more than distal) while the incidence of rectal cancer has remained relatively constant. These data suggest that the changing pattern of distribution of colorectal cancer which we have observed is unlikely to be due to a decreased incidence of distal and rectal cancers. These results may well represent a true increase in proximal colonic cancers, although as Boland and Savides suggest, they could also be explained by a rising incidence in all subsites, with relative sparing of the distal colon and rectum due to either the protective effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or endoscopic polypectomy.
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