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The statistics of targets
  1. M Heydtmann
  1. Correspondence to:
    Dr M Heydtmann
    The Liver Research Laboratories, 5th Floor, Institute for Biomedical Research, Birmingham University, Edgbaston B15 2TH, UK; m.heydtmann{at}bham.ac.uk

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Targets play an increasing role in medicine. Using the recent target of caecal intubation in over 90% of colonoscopies,1 I herewith outline some statistical issues implicated. Typical trainees need three years to achieve competence. CUSUMs2 are useful in assessing progress during the learning curve, but “test endoscopies” are needed to calculate and prove performance statistically more robust. But how many?

A trainee at the end of his learning curve with a true and unchanging success rate of 93%, which sample …

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