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Gut 63:1112-1119 doi:10.1136/gutjnl-2013-304965
  • Endoscopy
  • Original article

A score to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia at colonoscopy

Open Access
  1. Jaroslaw Regula1,2
  1. 1Department of Gastroenterological Oncology, The Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Centre and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland
  2. 2Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical Centre for Postgraduate Education, Warsaw, Poland
  3. 3The Polish Foundation of Gastroenterology, Warsaw, Poland
  1. Correspondence to Professor Jaroslaw Regula, Department of Gastroenterological Oncology, Institute of Oncology, Roentgen Street 5, Warsaw 02-781, Poland; jregula{at}coi.waw.pl
  • Received 25 March 2013
  • Revised 4 December 2013
  • Accepted 9 December 2013
  • Published Online First 2 January 2014

Abstract

Objective This study aimed to develop and validate a model to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in Caucasian patients.

Design We performed a cross-sectional analysis of database records for 40-year-old to 66-year-old patients who entered a national primary colonoscopy-based screening programme for colorectal cancer in 73 centres in Poland in the year 2007. We used multivariate logistic regression to investigate the associations between clinical variables and the presence of advanced neoplasia in a randomly selected test set, and confirmed the associations in a validation set. We used model coefficients to develop a risk score for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia.

Results Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 2544 of the 35 918 included participants (7.1%). In the test set, a logistic-regression model showed that independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia were: age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, cigarette smoking (p<0.001 for these four factors), and Body Mass Index (p=0.033). In the validation set, the model was well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed risk of advanced neoplasia: 1.00 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.06)) and had moderate discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.62). We developed a score that estimated the likelihood of detecting advanced neoplasia in the validation set, from 1.32% for patients scoring 0, to 19.12% for patients scoring 7–8.

Conclusions Developed and internally validated score consisting of simple clinical factors successfully estimates the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Caucasian patients. Once externally validated, it may be useful for counselling or designing primary prevention studies.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/

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