Duodenal ulcer

Abstract

In 1958 the Yale freshman class gave blood samples as part of a study intended to determine the predictive value of plasma pepsinogen (PP) for the subsequent development of duodenal ulcer (DU). We report a long-term follow-up of this cohort. A selfadministered questionnaire designed to ascertain information about the development of peptic ulcers, and the presence of risk factors was mailed to 861 subjects with “active” addresses. A second questionnaire was mailed to each respondent's physician(s) to verify the diagnosis of DU. Completed questionnaires were returned, after three mailings, by 604 (70%) of the subjects. They reported 18 documented DUs, 15 since 1958, for an incidence of 1.1/1000 person years. Only smoking (P<0.05) and undergraduate physical inactivity (P<0.01) were identified as risk factors for DU. Family history; blood type; blood antigen secretor status; ingestion of coffee, alcohol, milk, salicylates, soda, or tea; and COPD were not identified as risk factors for DU. Patients with DU had higher mean PP values than those who did not (391.6±99.6 vs 346.6±106.7, mean ±sd) but this was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The predictive value of an elevated PP(>450) for the development of DU was 7.9%, but a low or normal PP predicted the absence of a DU in 97.5% of subjects over a 22-year span. We conclude that in a selected population followed for 22 years there is a low incidence of DU, supporting the general belief that duodenal ulcer is declining, that smoking and undergraduate physical inactivity are risk factors for duodenal ulcer, and that a low or normal PP may be useful as a predictor for a low susceptibility to duodenal ulcer disease.