Summary of assumptions used in the Markov analysis
| Actuarial survival (months) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 |
| *Reference case No 1 (group 1). | ||||
| **Reference case No 2 (group 2). | ||||
| Surgical resection* | ||||
| Actuarial probability of survival | 93% | 93% | 83% | 75% |
| Actuarial probability of dropout | 8% | 10% | 17% | 30% |
| Actuarial probability recurrence | 9% | 19% | 25% | 30% |
| Three month related mortality—4% | ||||
| Percutaneous treatment** | ||||
| Actuarial probability of survival | 95% | 86% | 76% | 65% |
| Actuarial probability of dropout | 10% | 20% | 35% | 50% |
| Actuarial probability recurrence | 7% | 18% | 21% | 25% |
| Complete response | ||||
| Single HCC <3 cm—80% | ||||
| Single HCC 3–5 cm—50% | ||||
| Three nodules <3 cm—40% | ||||
| Natural history*/** | ||||
| Actuarial probability of survival | 97% | 80% | 72% | 65% |
| Actuarial probability of dropout | ||||
| Group 1 | 7% | 15% | 30% | 50% |
| Group 2 | 18% | 36% | 50% | 70% |
| Probability of growth of main nodule, 1 year—70% | ||||
| Probability of vascular invasion, 1 year— 21% | ||||
| Probability of extrahepatic spread, 1 year—9% | ||||
| Liver transplantation | ||||
| Global outcome after OLT, 5 year survival—70% | ||||
| Probability of recurrence, 5 year—10%. | ||||
| Three month related mortality—2% | ||||
| Probability of survival after dropping out while on the waiting list according to the study groups | ||||
| Group 1 | 60% | 40% | 32% | 16% |
| Group 2 | 40% | 20% | 10% | 0% |