Table 1

Model parameters with lower and upper limits: (a) transition probabilities, (b) treatment efficacy, (c) quality of life data, and (d) costs

(a) Transition probabilities		Annual probability
Initial state	State after transition	Base case	Lower limit	Upper limit	Ref
Mild chronic hepatitis C	Viral negative (spontaneous remission)	0.002	0.000	0.005	54
	Moderate chronic hepatitis C	0.041	0.022	0.060	55−57
Moderate chronic hepatitis C	Compensated cirrhosis	0.073	0.051	0.095	55−57
	Hepatocellular carcinoma	0.001	0.000	0.002	58
Compensated cirrhosis	Diuretic sensitive ascites	0.025	0.018	0.032	58
	Variceal haemorrhage	0.011	0.006	0.016	58
	Hepatic encephalopathy	0.004	0.001	0.007	58
	Hepatocellular carcinoma	0.015	0.010	0.020	58
Diuretic sensitive ascites	Diuretic refractory ascites	0.067	0.040	0.094	58 59
	Death from liver disease	0.110	0.077	0.143	59
Diuretic refractory ascites	Death from liver disease	0.330	0.280	0.380	59
Variceal haemorrhage (first year)	Death from liver disease	0.400	0.334	0.466	60
Variceal haemorrhage (subsequent years)	Death from liver disease	0.130	0.085	0.175	60
Hepatic encephalopathy (first year)	Death from liver disease	0.680	0.659	0.701	61
Hepatic encephalopathy (subsequent years)	Death from liver disease	0.400	0.378	0.422	61
Hepatocellular carcinoma	Death from liver disease	0.860	0.837	0.883	11
Liver transplantation (first year)	Death from liver disease	0.210	0.193	0.227	62–64
Liver transplantation (subsequent years)	Death from liver disease	0.057	0.047	0.067	62–64
Decompensated cirrhosis (ascites, variceal haemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy)	Liver transplantation	0.022	0.011	0.033	17 18 65

	SVR*
(b) Treatment efficacy	Base case	Lower limit	Upper limit	Ref
Antiviral treatment
Interferon 3×3 MU/week+ribavirin 1000–1200 mg/day	47%	42%	51%	6
Peginterferon 0.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin 1000–1200 mg/day	47%	43%	52%	6
Peginterferon 1.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin 800 mg/day	54%	49%	58%	6
Peginterferon 1.5 μg/kg/week+ribavirin >10.6 mg/kg/day	61%	53%	68%	6

	Quality of life weight			Source
(c) Health related quality of life	Base case	Lower limit	Upper limit
Health state				Source
Mild chronic hepatitis	0.95	0.90	1.00	†
Moderate chronic hepatitis	0.92	0.89	0.95	†
Compensated cirrhosis	0.89	0.82	0.92	†
Decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma	0.81	0.76	0.87	†
Hepatocellular carcinoma	0.81	0.76	0.87	†
Liver transplantation	0.86	0.73	0.99	†
Death	0.00	0.00	0.00	†
Utility multiplier viral positive	0.98	0.93	1.00	†
Utility multiplier for interferon+ribavirin	0.95	0.92	0.98	†
Utility multiplier for peginterferon+ribavirin	0.90	0.84	0.96	†

	Annual costs ()			Source
(d) Costs	Base case	Lower limit	Upper limit	Source
*SVR, sustained virological response rates—that is, proportion of viral negative patients six months after end of treatment (adjusted for histological stage and viral negative rate at 24 weeks in the analysis).
†GEHMO quality of life database.
‡GEHMO cost database.
Health state
Mild chronic hepatitis C	127	63.5	254	‡
Moderate chronic hepatitis C	130	65	260	‡
Compensated cirrhosis	673	336.5	1346	‡
Diuretic sensitive ascites	1914	957	3828	‡
Diuretic refractory ascites	12 534	6257	25 068	‡
Hepatic encephalopathy (first year)	7738	3869	15 476	‡
Hepatic encephalopathy (subsequent years)	2793	1396.5	5586	‡
Variceal haemorrhage (first year)	12 314	6157	24 628	‡
Variceal haemorrhage (subsequent years)	3385	1692.5	6770	‡
Hepatocellular carcinoma	17 244	8622	34 488	‡
Liver transplantation (first year)	117 303	58 651.5	234 606	‡
Liver transplantation (subsequent years)	16 965	8482.5	33 930	‡