Annual rate of progression of: | | | |
No dysplasia to cancer | 0.005 | 0.001–0.1 |
2–
5,
41
|
Low grade dysplasia to cancer | 0.025 | 0.005–0.05 |
41
|
High grade dysplasia to cancer | 0.025 | 0.001–0.3 |
8,
9,
41–
43
|
No dysplasia to high grade dysplasia | 0.01 | 0.0028–0.083 |
8,
42,
44–
46
|
Low grade dysplasia to high grade dysplasia | 0.05 | 0.01–0.078 |
41,
42,
47,
48
|
No dysplasia to low grade dysplasia | 0.05 | 0.01–0.078 |
4,
42,
44,
48,
49
|
Annual rate of regression of: | | | |
No dysplasia to no Barrett’s | 0.0175 | 0.001–0.02 |
50
|
Low grade dysplasia to no dysplasia | 0.63 | 0.50–0.80 |
44,
47
|
High grade dysplasia to no dysplasia | 0.10 | 0.01–0.15 |
9,
47
|
High grade dysplasia to low grade dysplasia | 0.07 | 0.05–0.10 |
8,
9,
47
|
Treatment variables | | | |
Ablation causes stricture | 0.185 | 0.10–0.30 |
19,
51
|
Ablation causes perforation | 0.003 | 0.001–0.01 |
19,
51,
52
|
Ablation eradicates all high grade dysplasia | 0.88 | 0.5–1.0 |
19,
51–
55
|
Ablation eradicates all Barrett’s | 0.40 | 0.1–0.5 |
19,
51–
55
|
Surgical resectability, cancer dx by surveillance | 0.95 | 0.85–1 |
56–
58
|
Surgical resectability, cancer dx symptomatically | 0.50 | 0.1–0.7 |
57–
59
|
Surgical mortality, cancer dx by surveillance | 0.027 | 0.025–0.1 |
60–
63
|
Surgical mortality, cancer dx symptomatically | 0.05 | 0.025–0.43 |
59–
62
|
Probability of major surgical morbidity | 0.15 | 0.05–0.50 |
64–
67
|
Surgery cures cancer, cancer dx by surveillance | 0.80 | 0.6–0.9 |
8,
15,
57,
58,
68
|
Surgery cures cancer, cancer dx symptomatically | 0.20 | 0.1–0.43 |
57–
59,
68
|
Death from endoscopy | 0.000021 | 0–0.00005 |
69–
72
|
Other major complication, endoscopy | 0.0013 | 0–0.005 |
69–
72
|
Mortality from surgery to repair perforation | 0.08 | 0.05–0.15 |
28,
73–
76
|
Major morbidity from surgery to repair perforation | 0.20 | 0.10–0.40 |
73,
76
|
Misdiagnosis rates of dysplastic states | | | |
Cancer called high grade dysplasia | 0.175 | 0.01–0.20 |
22,
23,
30,
77
|
Cancer called low grade dysplasia | 0.05 | 0.01–.10 |
22,
23,
30,
77
|
High grade dysplasia called cancer | 0.11 | 0.01–0.20 |
22,
24,
30,
77
|
High grade dysplasia called low grade dysplasia | 0.115 | 0.01–0.20 |
22,
24,
30,
77
|
Low grade dysplasia called high grade dysplasia | 0.083 | 0.01–0.10 |
24,
30,
77
|
Low grade dysplasia called cancer | 0.05 | 0.01–0.10 |
24,
30,
77
|
Utilities | | | |
Barrett’s oesophagus | 1.0 | 0.79–1.0 | 30* |
Oesophagectomy | 0.97 | 0.46–1.0 |
30,
31
|
Cancer | 0.50 | 0–1.0 | 29* |