Ratio of expected to observed risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia in the validation dataset (N=17 939)
| Variables | Observed risk | Expected risk | Expected to observed ratio | (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1270 | 1275.3 | 1.00 | 0.95 to 1.06 |
| Sex | ||||
| Female | 582 | 601.5 | 1.03 | 0.95 to 1.12 |
| Male | 688 | 673.8 | 0.98 | 0.91 to 1.06 |
| Age group, years | ||||
| 40–49 | 83 | 76.2 | 0.92 | 0.74 to 1.14 |
| 50–54 | 331 | 280.1 | 0.85 | 0.76 to 0.94 |
| 55–59 | 443 | 468.6 | 1.06 | 0.96 to 1.16 |
| 60–66 | 413 | 450.4 | 1.09 | 0.99 to 1.20 |
| Family history of CRC | ||||
| None | 1028 | 1010.2 | 0.98 | 0.92 to 1.05 |
| One first-degree relative with CRC, aged ≥60 years | 170 | 176.9 | 1.04 | 0.90 to 1.21 |
| One first-degree relative with CRC, aged <60 years | 57 | 69.6 | 1.22 | 0.94 to 1.58 |
| Two first-degree relatives with CRC | 15 | 18.6 | 1.24 | 0.75 to 2.06 |
| Smoking history, pack-years* | ||||
| None | 582 | 609.5 | 1.05 | 0.97 to 1.14 |
| <10 | 164 | 141.9 | 0.87 | 0.74 to 1.01 |
| 10–19 | 200 | 185.7 | 0.93 | 0.81 to 1.07 |
| ≥20 | 324 | 338.2 | 1.04 | 0.94 to 1.16 |
| Women BMI, kg/m2 | ||||
| <25 | 219 | 193.3 | 0.88 | 0.77 to 1.01 |
| 25–29 | 234 | 256.5 | 1.10 | 0.96 to 1.25 |
| ≥30 | 129 | 151.6 | 1.18 | 0.99 to 1.40 |
| Men BMI, kg/m2 | ||||
| <25 | 161 | 158.7 | 0.99 | 0.85 to 1.15 |
| 25–29 | 331 | 344.1 | 1.04 | 0.93 to 1.16 |
| ≥30 | 196 | 171.0 | 0.87 | 0.76 to 1.00 |
*Regardless of current smoking status.
BMI, Body Mass Index; CRC, colorectal cancer.