Colorectal cancer risk model discrimination in the published literature, EPIC and the UK Biobank
| Author | Sex | Site | Time horizon (years) | Derivation C-statistic (95% CI) | Published validation C-statistic* (95% CI) | UK Biobank C-statistic (95% CI) | UK Biobank Sex-combined C-statistic (95% CI) | EPIC C-statistic (95% CI) | EPIC Sex-combined C-statistic (95% CI) | I2statistic across EPIC countries (%) |
| Colditz23 | Male | Colon | 10 | 0.71 (0.68 to 0.74)42 | 0.68 (0.66 to 0.70) | 0.67 (0.65 to 0.68) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.70) | 0.66 (0.64 to 0.69) | 62.8 | |
| Female | Colon | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.70)42 | 0.63 (0.60 to 0.65) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.69) | 62.3 | |||||
| Driver24 | Male | Colorectal | 20 | 0.695 | 0.68 (0.67 to 0.69) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.70) | 77.6 | |||
| Freedman7 | Male | Colorectal | 10 and 20 | 0.61 (0.60 to 0.62)43 | 0.60 (0.58 to 0.62) | 0.61 (0.59 to 0.62) | 0.61 (0.59 to 0.63) | 0.61 (0.59 to 0.62) | 0.0 | |
| Female | Colorectal | 0.61 (0.59 to 0.62)43 | 0.58 (0.56 to 0.61) | 0.58 (0.56 to 0.60) | 0.0 | |||||
| Ma9 | Male | Colorectal | 10 | 0.70 (0.68 to 0.72) | 0.64 (0.61 to 0.67) | 0.69 (0.68 to 0.71) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) | 65.9 | ||
| Male | Colon | 0.71 (0.68 to 0.74) | 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) | 0.70 (0.68 to 0.72) | 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72) | 51.9 | ||||
| Male | Rectal | 0.68 (0.64 to 0.71) | 0.62 (0.57 to 0.66) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) | 0.66 (0.63 to 0.68) | 1.3 | ||||
| Shin25 | Male | Right Colon | 5 | 0.74 (0.72 to 0.76) | 0.76 (0.73 to 0.79) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.71) | 0.71 (0.67 to 0.74) | 0.0 | ||
| Female | Rectal | 0.70 (0.68 to 0.71) | 0.72 (0.70 to 0.74) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) | 0.62 (0.58 to 0.67) | 37.7 | ||||
| Steffen10 | Both | Colorectal | 5 | 0.73 (0.72 to 0.74) | 0.70 (0.66 to 0.73) | 0.68 (0.67 to 0.69) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.71) | 68.1 | ||
| Both | Colon | 0.75 (0.73 to 0.76) | 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76) | 0.69 (0.67 to 0.70) | 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72) | 45.4 | ||||
| Both | Rectal | 0.73 (0.71 to 0.76) | 0.64 (0.58 to 0.70) | 0.66 (0.64 to 0.68) | 0.64 (0.61 to 0.68) | 33.0 | ||||
| Taylor8 | Both | Colorectal | 20 | 0.64 | 0.67 (0.66 to 0.68) | 0.67 (0.65 to 0.69) | 0.0 | |||
| Wells26 | Male | Colorectal | 10 | 0.681 (0.669 to 0.694) | 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) | 0.67 (0.65 to 0.68) | 0.70 (0.67 to 0.73) | 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) | 20.9 | |
| Female | Colorectal | 0.679 (0.665 to 0.692) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.64) | 0.67 (0.65 to 0.70) | 0.0 |
*Validation C-statistics were obtained from the original derivation publications or, where indicated, from validation studies identified in the systematic review.
EPIC, European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.