Abstract
The risk of colon cancer in patients with ulcerative colitis is related to the duration and extent of disease. Prior reports have suggested that patients with onset of disease in childhood have a high risk of cancer. These risk factors were analyzed in 99 patients in a surveillance program of annual colonoscopy to detect mucosal dysplasia. All patients had pancolitis for at least eight years. The mean age at symptom onset was 23.2 years and the mean duration of disease at entry was 17 years. An average of 4.2 tests/patient were performed, and 91% were completely followed through 1985. Cancer risk was expressed as the hazard rate or the annual probability that a patient free of cancer would develop cancer after survival to a given time period. The hazard rate for high-grade dysplasia or cancer in patients with pancolitis measured from symptom onset was 2.5% at 20 years, 4% at 25 years, 7% at 30 years, 13% at 35 years, and 20% at 40 years. Sex was not a significant predictor of cancer, but older age at symptom onset was a predictor of dysplasia and cancer. From these data, the annual hazard rate of developing high-grade dysplasia or cancer can be estimated in patients with pancolitis based on an individual's age at symptom onset and duration of disease.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Greenstein AJ, Sachar DB, Smith H, et al: Cancer in universal and left-sided ulcerative colitis; factors determining risk. Gastroenterology 77:290–294, 1979
Katzka I, Brody RS, Morris E, Katz S: Assessment of colorectal cancer risk in patients with ulcerative colitis; experience from a private practice. Gastroenterology 85:22–29, 1983
Nugent FW, Haggitt RC, Colcher H, Kutteruf GC: Malignant potential of chronic ulcerative colitis. Gastroenterology 76:1–5, 1979
Prior P, Gyde SN, Macartney JC, Thompson H, Waterhouse JAH, Allan RN: Cancer morbidity in ulcerative colitis. Gut 23:490–497, 1982
Gyde S, Prior P, Dew MJ, et al: Mortality in ulcerative colitis. Gastroenterology 83:36–43, 1982
Devroede GJ, Taylor WF, Sauer WG, Jackman RJ, Stickler GB: Cancer risk and life expectancy of children with ulcerative colitis. N Engl J Med 285:17–21, 1971
Collins RH, Feldman M, Fordtran JS: Colon cancer, dysplasia, and surveillance in patients with ulcerative colitis: A critical review. N Engl J Med 316:1654–1658, 1987
Lennard-Jones JE, Morson BC, Ritchie JK, Shove DC, Williams CB: Cancer in colitis: Assessment of individual risk by clinical and histological criteria. Gastroenterology 73:1280–1289, 1977
Butt JH, Konishi F, Morson BC, Lennard-Jones JE, Ritchie JK: Macroscopic lesions in dysplasia and carcinoma complicating ulcerative colitis. Dig Dis Sci 28:18–26, 1983
Johnson WR, McDermott FT, Pihl E, Hughes ES: Mucosal dysplasia: A major predictor of cancer following ileorectal anastomosis. Dis Colon Rectum 26:697–700, 1983
Butt JH, Morson B: Dysplasia and cancer in inflammatory bowel disease (editorial). Gastroenterology 80:865–868, 1981
Blackstone MO, Riddell RH, Rogers BHG, Levin B: Dysplasia-associated lesion or mass (DALM) detected by colonoscopy in long-standing ulcerative colitis: An indication for colectomy. Gastroenterology 80:366–374, 1981
Riddell RH, Goldman H, Ransohoff DF, et al: Dysplasia in inflammatory bowel disease: Standardized classification with provisional clinical implications. Hum Pathol 14:931–968, 1983
Dobbins WO: Current status of the precancer lesion in ulcerative colitis. Gastroenterology 73:1431–1433, 1977
Cook MG, Path MRC, Goligher JC: Carcinoma and epithelial dysplasia complicating ulcerative colitis. Gastroenterology 68:1127–1136, 1975
Yardley JH, Keren DF: “Precancer” lesions in ulcerative colitis: a retrospective study of rectal biopsy and colectomy specimens. Cancer 34:835–844, 1974
Kewenter J, Hulten L, Ahren C: The occurrence of severe epithelial dysplasia and its bearing on treatment of longstanding ulcerative colitis. Ann Surg 195:209–213, 1982
Rubio CA, Johansson C, Slezak P, Ohman U, Hammarberg C: Villous dysplasia: An ominous histologic sign in colitis patients. Dis Colon Rectum 27:283–287, 1984
Granqvist S, Gabrielson N, Sundelin P, Thordeirsson T: Precancerous lesions in the mucosa in ulcerative colitis. Scand J Gastroenterol 15:289–296, 1980
Dobbins WO: Dysplasia and malignancy in inflammatory bowel disease. Annu Rev Med 35:33–48, 1984
Dickenson RJ, Dixon MF, Axon ATR: Colonoscopy and the detection of dysplasia in patients with longstanding ulcerative colitis. Lancet 2:620–622, 1980
Lennard-Jones JE, Ritchie JK, Morson BC, Williams CB: Cancer surveillance in ulcerative colitis: Experience over 15 years. Lancet 2:149–152, 1983
Rosenstock E, Farmer RG, Petras R, et al: Surveillance for colonic carcinoma in ulcerative colitis. Gastroenterology 89:1342–1346, 1985
Dwyer AJ, Prewitt JMS, Ecker JG, Plunkett J: Use of the hazard rate to schedule follow-up exams efficiently: An optimization approach to patient management. Med Decis Making 3:229–244, 1983
Dixon WJ (ed). BMDP Statistical Software. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, 1983
SAS/STATTM Guide for Personal Computers, Version 6 Edition. Cary, North Carolina, SAS Institutes, Inc., 1985.
Lashner BA, Hanauer SB, Silverstein MD: Optimal timing of colonoscopy to screen for cancer in ulcerative colitis. Ann Intern Med 108:274–278, 1988
Sackett DL, Whelan G: Cancer risk in ulcerative colitis: scientific requirements for the study of prognosis (editorial). Gastroenterology 78:1632–1635, 1980
Lashner BA, Evans AA, Kirsner JB, Hanauer SB: Prevalence and incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in family members. Gastroenterology 91:1396–1400, 1986
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Research supported by the Cancer Research Foundation and the Gastrointestinal Research Foundation Junior Board.
Dr. Silverstein is a Henry J. Kaiser Foundation Faculty Scholar in General Internal Medicine.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lashner, B.A., Silverstein, M.D. & Hanauer, S.B. Hazard rates for dysplasia and cancer in ulcerative colitis. Digest Dis Sci 34, 1536–1541 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01537106
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01537106