Objective The prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is increasing worldwide. Although increased levels of coeliac disease (CD) autoantibodies are often seen in renal disease, the importance of biopsy-verified CD for the risk of future ESRD is unclear. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the risk of future ESRD in individuals with CD.

Methods This was a population-based prospective cohort study. 29 050 individuals with CD (Marsh III) were identified through small-intestinal biopsy reports obtained between July 1969 and February 2008 in Sweden's 28 pathology departments. ESRD was defined as the need for renal dialysis or renal transplant in accordance with the international classification of disease and procedure codes in Swedish patient registers. Using Cox regression, the risk of ESRD in individuals with CD compared with age- and sex-matched reference individuals was estimated.

Results During follow-up, 90 individuals with CD developed ESRD (expected count 31). This corresponded to a HR for ESRD of 2.87 (95% CI 2.22 to 3.71, p<0.001). Adjusting for diabetes mellitus had only a marginal effect on the risk estimate (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.92 to 3.31). Excluding individuals with any urinary/renal disorder before study entry, the HR for ESRD in CD was 2.47 (95% CI 1.80 to 3.40). When restricting the outcome measure to ESRD confirmed by independent data from the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), the risk estimate increased to 3.20 (95% CI 2.39 to 4.28).

Conclusion This study indicates that individuals with biopsy-verified CD suffer increased risk of subsequent ESRD.