Article Text

Download PDFPDF
Original article
Fukuoka criteria accurately predict risk for adverse outcomes during follow-up of pancreatic cysts presumed to be intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Abstract

Objective Fukuoka consensus guidelines classify pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) presumed to be intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) into Fukuoka positive (FP) (subgroups of high-risk (HR) and worrisome features (WFs)) and Fukuoka negative (FN) (non-HR feature/WF cysts). We retrospectively estimated 5-year risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) in FN, WF and HR cysts of patients with PCL-IPMN.

Design From Mayo Clinic databases, we randomly selected 2000 patients reported to have a PCL; we excluded inflammatory or suspected non-IPMN cysts and those without imaging follow-up. We re-reviewed cross-sectional imaging and abstracted clinical and follow-up data on PCL-IPMNs. The study contained 802 patients with FN cysts and 358 with FP cysts.

Results Patients with PCL-IPMN had median (IQR) follow-up of 4.2 (1.8–7.1) years. Among FN cysts, 5-year PC risk was low (2–3%) regardless of cyst size (p=0.67). After excluding events in the first 6 months, 5-year PC risk remained low (0–2%) regardless of cyst size (p=0.61). Among FP cysts, HR cysts (n=66) had greater 5-year PC risk than WF cysts (n=292) (49.7% vs 4.1%; p<0.001). In HR cysts, 3-year PC risk was greatest for obstructive jaundice versus enhancing solid component or main pancreatic duct >10 mm (79.8% vs 37.3% vs 39.4%, respectively; p=0.01).

Conclusions Fukuoka guidelines accurately stratify PCL-IPMNs for PC risk, with FN cysts having lowest and HR cysts having greatest risk. After 6-month follow-up, WF and FN cysts had a low 5-year PC risk. Surveillance strategies should be tailored appropriately.

  • PANCREATIC TUMOURS
  • PANCREATIC SURGERY
  • PANCREATIC CANCER
  • PANCREATIC EPIDEMIOLOGY
View Full Text

Statistics from Altmetric.com

Request Permissions

If you wish to reuse any or all of this article please use the link below which will take you to the Copyright Clearance Center’s RightsLink service. You will be able to get a quick price and instant permission to reuse the content in many different ways.