Introduction A Cancer Research UK report¹ suggests GI endoscopy demand will increase dramatically, with a 45% increase over 5 years. We compare regional data to national projections, to provide reliable regional estimates to guide capacity planning.

Method JAG mandates the routine data submission from all hospital/Trust sites. This included adult OGD and colonoscopy procedure counts at University Hospital Birmingham and Heart of England NHS Trusts, comprising 4 hospital centres.

ResultsAbove predicted increases in OGD procedures were observed, with 27.8% growth over 5 years. (22% increase over two years was higher than predicted over five).

Colonoscopy growth was consistent with national projections at 32.6% growth in 5 years (10% increase over 2 years, consistent with national estimates). Bowel cancer screening lists occur at both Trusts.

Flexible sigmoidoscopy growth varied between Trusts (17.1% since 2013 at UHB, 3.3% reduction at HEFT). Bowel scope, although established at UHB is not yet at HEFT, was fundamental to projections.

Conclusion These data demonstrate large recent growth in endoscopy conducted in South/East Birmingham for OGD and colonoscopy, with greater than predicted growth in the former. Given current challenges of limited endoscopy rooms and staff retention, urgent capacity planning is required in this area and likely across the Midlands.

Reference

1. . Brown H, Wyatt S, Croft S, Gale N, Turner A, Mulla A. Scoping the Future, An evaluation of endoscopy capacity across the NHS in England. Cancer Research UK, Sept 2015

Disclosure of Interest None Declared