Table 1

Baseline estimates used in the decision model

VariableInterpretationBaseline valueReferences
pSens Sensitivity of genetic strategy for APC mutation in proband0.74 18,23
p15 Proportion of relatives between ages 10 and 20 years0.60 1-151
p25 Proportion of relatives between ages 20 and 30 years0.20 1-151
p35 Proportion of relatives between ages 30 and 40 years0.20 1-151
pCarry Risk of carrying APC mutation0.50 1, 2
pExp Degree of expression ofAPC mutation0.90 23
p20 Detection of FAP polyps between ages 15 and 25 years0.90 1-151
p30 Detection of FAP polyps between ages 25 and 35 years0.99 1-151
p40 Detection of FAP polyps between ages 35 and 50 years1.00 1-151
  • ↵1-151 Authors’ estimates.