Table 1

Model probability estimates and utilities

Variable	Value	Range	Reference
*Utilities derived from 56 surveillance eligible patients at Durham VA Medical Center.
Annual rate of progression of:
No dysplasia to cancer	0.005	0.001–0.1	^2– ^5, ⁴¹
Low grade dysplasia to cancer	0.025	0.005–0.05	⁴¹
High grade dysplasia to cancer	0.025	0.001–0.3	^8, ^9, ^41– ⁴³
No dysplasia to high grade dysplasia	0.01	0.0028–0.083	^8, ^42, ^44– ⁴⁶
Low grade dysplasia to high grade dysplasia	0.05	0.01–0.078	^41, ^42, ^47, ⁴⁸
No dysplasia to low grade dysplasia	0.05	0.01–0.078	^4, ^42, ^44, ^48, ⁴⁹
Annual rate of regression of:
No dysplasia to no Barrett’s	0.0175	0.001–0.02	⁵⁰
Low grade dysplasia to no dysplasia	0.63	0.50–0.80	^44, ⁴⁷
High grade dysplasia to no dysplasia	0.10	0.01–0.15	^9, ⁴⁷
High grade dysplasia to low grade dysplasia	0.07	0.05–0.10	^8, ^9, ⁴⁷
Treatment variables
Ablation causes stricture	0.185	0.10–0.30	^19, ⁵¹
Ablation causes perforation	0.003	0.001–0.01	^19, ^51, ⁵²
Ablation eradicates all high grade dysplasia	0.88	0.5–1.0	^19, ^51– ⁵⁵
Ablation eradicates all Barrett’s	0.40	0.1–0.5	^19, ^51– ⁵⁵
Surgical resectability, cancer dx by surveillance	0.95	0.85–1	^56– ⁵⁸
Surgical resectability, cancer dx symptomatically	0.50	0.1–0.7	^57– ⁵⁹
Surgical mortality, cancer dx by surveillance	0.027	0.025–0.1	^60– ⁶³
Surgical mortality, cancer dx symptomatically	0.05	0.025–0.43	^59– ⁶²
Probability of major surgical morbidity	0.15	0.05–0.50	^64– ⁶⁷
Surgery cures cancer, cancer dx by surveillance	0.80	0.6–0.9	^8, ^15, ^57, ^58, ⁶⁸
Surgery cures cancer, cancer dx symptomatically	0.20	0.1–0.43	^57– ^59, ⁶⁸
Death from endoscopy	0.000021	0–0.00005	^69– ⁷²
Other major complication, endoscopy	0.0013	0–0.005	^69– ⁷²
Mortality from surgery to repair perforation	0.08	0.05–0.15	^28, ^73– ⁷⁶
Major morbidity from surgery to repair perforation	0.20	0.10–0.40	^73, ⁷⁶
Misdiagnosis rates of dysplastic states
Cancer called high grade dysplasia	0.175	0.01–0.20	^22, ^23, ^30, ⁷⁷
Cancer called low grade dysplasia	0.05	0.01–.10	^22, ^23, ^30, ⁷⁷
High grade dysplasia called cancer	0.11	0.01–0.20	^22, ^24, ^30, ⁷⁷
High grade dysplasia called low grade dysplasia	0.115	0.01–0.20	^22, ^24, ^30, ⁷⁷
Low grade dysplasia called high grade dysplasia	0.083	0.01–0.10	^24, ^30, ⁷⁷
Low grade dysplasia called cancer	0.05	0.01–0.10	^24, ^30, ⁷⁷
Utilities
Barrett’s oesophagus	1.0	0.79–1.0	³⁰*
Oesophagectomy	0.97	0.46–1.0	^30, ³¹
Cancer	0.50	0–1.0	²⁹*