Table 2 Relative risk for adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction associated with measures of body mass index (BMI) at different time points
Oesophageal adenocarcinomaGastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinoma
Controls/CasesFully adjusted, except reflux*Fully adjusted, with reflux†CasesFully adjusted, except reflux†Fully adjusted, with reflux
OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)
BMI last year (kg/m2)
    <18.521/10.3 (0.0 to 2.6)0.5 (0.1 to 3.6)10.2 (0.0 to 1.7)0.3 (0.0 to 2.0)
    18.5–24.9528/711.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)1071.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)
    25.0–29.9650/1501.4 (1.0 to 1.9)1.2 (0.9 to 1.7)1681.1 (0.8 to 1.4)1.0 (0.7 to 1.3)
    30.0–34.9222/892.7 (1.8 to 3.9)2.1 (1.4 to 3.1)981.9 (1.3 to 2.6)1.6 (1.1 to 2.2)
    35.0–39.968/253.1 (1.8 to 5.5)2.5 (1.4 to 4.4)272.0 (1.2 to 3.4)1.7 (1.0 to 3.0)
    40+24/167.0 (3.3 to 15.0)6.1 (2.7 to 13.6)92.6 (1.1 to 6.2)2.4 (1.0 to 5.8)
    p trend<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001
BMI maximum (kg/m2)
    <18.59/10.9 (0.1 to 8.7)1.4 (0.2 to 11.9)0
    18.5–24.9356/391.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)551.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)
    25.0–29.9708/1361.4 (0.9 to 2.0)1.2 (0.8 to 1.7)1781.3 (0.9 to 1.8)1.1 (0.8 to 1.6)
    30.0–34.9333/1142.5 (1.6 to 3.7)1.9 (1.3 to 3.0)1221.9 (1.3 to 2.7)1.6 (1.1 to 2.4)
    35.0–39.9107/434.1 (2.4 to 6.8)3.1 (1.8 to 5.3)472.9 (1.8 to 4.6)2.4 (1.5 to 3.9)
    40+52/245.2 (2.7 to 9.9)4.4 (2.3 to 8.7)152.1 (1.1 to 4.2)1.9 (1.0 to 3.8)
    p trend<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001
BMI age 20 years (kg/m2)
    <18.5121/140.8 (0.4 to 1.4)0.8 (0.5 to 1.6)90.4 (0.2 to 0.8)0.4 (0.2 to 0.8)
    18.5–24.91144/2271.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)2821.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)
    25.0–29.9237/811.7 (1.2 to 2.3)1.7 (1.2 to 2.3)971.6 (1.2 to 2.1)1.6 (1.2 to 2.2)
    30.0–34.929/132.6 (1.3 to 5.2)2.4 (1.1 to 5.1)132.1 (1.0 to 4.1)2.0 (0.9 to 4.1)
    35.0+6/53.6 (1.0 to 13.0)2.9 (0.8 to 11.2)21.1 (0.2 to 5.9)1.0 (0.2 to 5.3)
    p trend<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001
Change in BMI (kg/m2)
    <3581/981.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)1311.0 (ref)1.0 (ref)
    3–4.9338/731.2 (0.9 to 1.7)1.0 (0.7 to 1.5)961.1 (0.8 to 1.6)1.0 (0.7 to 1.4)
    5–9.9406/1171.7 (1.3 to 2.4)1.4 (1.0 to 2.0)1151.2 (0.9 to 1.6)1.1 (0.8 to 1.5)
    10+153/472.2 (1.4 to 3.4)1.8 (1.2 to 2.8)501.6 (1.0 to 2.3)1.4 (0.9 to 2.1)
    p trend<0.0010.0020.050.26
  • *Adjusted for age, sex, state, household income, cumulative smoking history, mean alcohol consumption and frequency of aspirin use in the 5 years before diagnosis.

  • †Adjusted for above factors and frequency of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms 10 years before diagnosis.