Table 2 Univariable models predicting 5-day mortality post-AVH
Predictor variablesHR (95% CI)p Value
MELD*1.08 (1.03 to 1.12)0.003
Volume of PRBCs transfused in first 24 h†1.23 (1.07 to 1.37)0.006
AST (U/l)‡1.05 (1.01 to 1.07)0.016
Ascites4.0 (1.0 to 26.3)0.04
Alcohol-related liver disease§0.24 (0.04 to 0.92)0.04
Active bleeding at index endoscopy5.8 (1.8 to 21.6)0.003
Clot on varix at index endoscopy3.6 (1.0 to 16.2)0.05
Age¶1.01 (0.99 to 1.04)0.4
CTP class A**0.29 (0.16 to 1.50)0.2
Serum sodium††0.92 (0.86 to 1.01)0.08
  • *HR is reported per 1-point change in MELD. †HR is reported per unit (250 ml) of PRBCs transfused. ‡HR is reported per 10 U/l change in AST level. §Alcohol-related liver disease is expressed relative to viral or other aetiology. ¶HR is reported per 1-year change in age. **Reference group for HR is CTP class B/C. ††HR is reported per 1 mmol/l change in serum sodium.

  • AST, aspartate aminotransferase; AVH, acute variceal haemorrhage; CTP, Child–Turcotte–Pugh; MELD, Model for End-stage Liver Disease; PRBCs, packed red blood cells.