| Predictor variables | 6-Week mortality | Re-bleeding within the first 5 days | ||
| HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | |
| MELD* | 1.11 (1.07 to 1.14) | <0.001 | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.08) | 0.01 |
| Volume of PRBCs transfused in the first 24 h† | 1.22 (1.11 to 1.33) | <0.001 | 1.01 (0.89 to 1.12) | 0.8 |
| AST (IU/l)‡ | 1.03 (1.002 to 1.05) | 0.04 | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.5 |
| CTP class A§ | 0.20 (0.03 to 0.66) | 0.005 | 0.73 (0.30 to 1.57) | 0.4 |
| Serum sodium¶ (mmol/l) | 0.92 (0.88 to 0.97) | 0.005 | 1.00 (0.94 to 1.07) | 0.9 |
| Ascites | 3.5 (1.5 to 9.5) | 0.002 | 1.42 (0.74 to 2.84) | 0.3 |
| Clot on varix | 1.96 (0.96 to 4.13) | 0.07 | 1.91 (0.99 to 3.78) | 0.05 |
| Active bleeding at index endoscopy | 2.1 (1.1 to 4.3) | 0.04 | 1.05 (0.48 to 2.09) | 0.9 |
*HR is reported per 1-point change in MELD. †HR is reported per unit (250 ml) of PRBCs transfused ‡HR is reported per 10 U/l change in AST level. §Reference group for the HR is CTP class B/C. ¶HR is reported per 1 mmol/l change in serum sodium.
AST, aspartate aminotransferase; AVH, acute variceal haemorrhage; CTP, Child–Turcotte–Pugh; MELD, Model for End-stage Liver Disease; PRBCs, packed red blood cells.