Table 6 Positive predictive value of a positive gFOBT result (values given as percentages and the denominator (n) from which they are derived)
First round % (n)Second round % (n)Third round % (n)
Cancer
Total12.0 (3464)7.0 (3123)7.5 (2044)
Males13.0 (2144)7.1 (1911)7.7 (1226)
Females10.2 (1320)7.0 (1212)7.1 (818)
Non-responders in all previous rounds9.4 (350)12.6 (175)
Responders in any previous round6.6 (2125)7.1 (1218)
Adenoma
Total36.5 (3464)30.3 (3123)29.1 (2044)
Males41.6 (2144)35.0 (1911)33.9 (1226)
Females28.2 (1320)22.8 (1212)22.0 (818)
Non-responders in all previous rounds38.0 (350)34.9 (175)
Responders in any previous round28.9 (2125)28.7 (1218)
High-risk adenoma
Total4.3 (3464)3.1 (3123)3.1 (2044)
Males5.9 (2144)4.3 (1911)4.1 (1226)
Non-responders in all previous rounds4.6 (350)5.1 (175)
Responders in any previous round2.7 (2125)3.0 (1218)
Total neoplasia
Total48.4 (3464)37.4 (3123)36.6 (2044)
Males54.6 (2144)42.1 (1911)41.6 (1226)
Females38.4 (1320)29.8 (1212)29.1 (818)
Cancer+high-risk adenoma
Total16.4 (3464)10.1 (3123)10.6 (2044)
Males18.9 (2144)11.4 (1911)11.8 (1226)
Females12.0 (1320)8.3 (1212)8.8 (818)
Non-responders in all previous rounds47.4 (350)47.4 (175)
Responders in any previous round35.5 (2125)35.8 (1218)
  • There was a statistically significant decline in the PPV for cancer between the first and second round (p<0.01, χ2 test), but not between the second and third rounds.

  • The difference between males and females in all rounds and in all variables was statistically significant at the p<0.01 level, with the exceptions of a positive predictive value for cancer in the second and third rounds (χ2 test).

  • gFOBT, guaiac faecal occult blood testing.