Primary end point (Bayesian analysis including historical controls)
| CDAI change from baseline to week 6 | |||
| Treatment | n | Mean (SD) | 95% Credible interval* |
| Secukinumab twice 10 mg/kg | 39 | −29.2 (14.0) | −56.9 to −1.4 |
| Placebo | 20 | −63.1 (13.9) | −90.4 to −35.9 |
| ΔCDAI (AIN457 vs placebo) | 33.9 (19.7) | −4.9 to 72.9 | |
Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI more than placebo =4.4%.
Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI by ≥50 points more than placebo <0.1%.
Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI by <40 points more than placebo >99.9%.
↵* Bayesian statistics report probabilities and credible intervals, unlike frequentist statistics that report p values and CIs.
CDAI, Crohn's Disease Activity Index.