Base-case analysis
| Barrett prevalence, in the general population (%) | Barrett distribution in patients with cancer (%) | Cancer incidence, per 100 000 population | Annual cancer transition rate per 1000 | NNT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a | b | c=5.8*b | d=c/a | 1/d | |
| Long | 1.5 | 56.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 450 |
| Short | 4.7 | 23.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 3440 |
| Ultra-short | 14.4 | 20.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 12 364 |
Estimates of Barrett to cancer transition rates and number of patients needed to be tested (NNT) to find one cancer based on the observed Barrett prevalence among patients with T1 cancer, published Barrett prevalence rates in the population, and assuming a German cancer incidence of 5.8 per 100 000 persons (German Cancer Registry 2010).