Multivariate models predicting the early stage, treatment receipt and mortality in patients diagnosed with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in the Veterans Health Administration
| Early stage* OR (95% CI) | Treatment† OR (95% CI) | Overall mortality HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BE surveillance programme | |||
| No | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. |
| Yes | 2.62 (1.67 to 4.11) | 1.71 (1.11 to 2.63) | 0.49 (0.37 to 0.66) |
| BE fiscal year | |||
| 2004 | Ref. | Ref. | –‡ |
| 2005 | 1.70 (0.88 to 3.31) | 1.65 (0.89 to 3.09) | – |
| 2006 | 1.05 (0.49 to 2.25) | 2.20 (1.04 to 4.65) | – |
| 2007 | 1.15 (0.49 to 2.71) | 3.81 (1.53 to 9.46) | – |
| 2008 | 1.68 (0.59 to 4.78) | 3.39 (1.20 to 9.61) | – |
| 2009 | 2.80 (0.55 to 14.33) | 4.36 (0.88 to 21.49) | – |
| Age at EAC diagnosis | |||
| <60 | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. |
| 60–64 | 0.82 (0.46 to 1.48) | 1.30 (0.71 to 2.37) | 0.93 (0.59 to 1.46) |
| 65–69 | 1.13 (0.60 to 2.13) | 0.75 (0.41 to 1.34) | 1.22 (0.77 to 1.92) |
| 70+ | 0.90 (0.49 to 1.67) | 0.98 (0.54 to 1.77) | 1.70 (1.17 to 2.46) |
| Race | |||
| White | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. |
| Black | 0.69 (0.20 to 2.41) | 1.94 (0.49 to 7.65) | 1.00 (0.46 to 2.22) |
| Other | 1.68 (0.81 to 3.46) | 1.16 (0.60 to 2.24) | 0.64 (0.39 to 1.03) |
| Propensity score (quartiles) | |||
| 1 | Ref. | Ref. | Ref. |
| 2 | 1.34 (0.38 to 4.69) | 0.98 (0.28 to 3.39) | 1.77 (0.99 to 3.16) |
| 3 | 1.61 (0.41 to 6.35) | 1.47 (0.38 to 5.71) | 2.33 (1.25 to 4.34) |
| 4 | 1.72 (0.41 to 7.29) | 2.48 (0.59 to 10.42) | 1.78 (0.89 to 3.58) |
| PPI | |||
| No | Ref. | Ref. | – |
| Yes | 0.29 (0.13 to 0.67) | 0.45 (0.21 to 0.96) | – |
| GI visit | |||
| No | Ref. | – | Ref. |
| Yes | 1.52 (0.98 to 2.37) | – | 1.25 (0.93 to 1.67) |
| Comorbidity score at BE diagnosis | |||
| 0 | – | – | Ref. |
| 1 | – | – | 1.46 (1.04 to 2.06) |
| 2+ | – | – | 2.06 (1.42 to 2.99) |
| Number of VA visits between BE and EAC diagnosis | |||
| 1st quartile (8–36) | – | – | Ref. |
| 2nd quartile (37–68) | – | – | 0.64 (0.34 to 1.20) |
| 3rd quartile (69–125) | – | – | 0.41 (0.21 to 0.79) |
| 4th quartile (126–720) | – | – | 0.46 (0.23 to 0.92) |
| Year of EAC diagnosis | |||
| 2004–2006 | – | – | Ref. |
| 2007–2009 | – | – | 1.33 (0.94 to 1.88) |
| 2010–2011 | – | – | 1.71 (1.14 to 2.55) |
Full models were adjusted for the variables indicated for each outcome.
*Early stage: 0 and 1 vs 2, 3, 4 and missing.
†Any treatment: surgery, endoscopic ablation/or resection, chemotherapy or radiation versus no treatment.
‡All variables with ‘–’ were not included in multivariable model due to exclusion by stepwise regression.
BE, Barrett's oesophagus; PPI, proton pump inhibitor; VA, Veteran Affairs.