Table 1

Reference case probabilities and ranges considered

Variable	Location	Values	Range	References
LSL proportion	Colon	0.827	0.75–0.90	ACE data set1
LSL proportion	Rectum	0.173	0.10–0.25	ACE data set1
Prevalence of SMIC	Colon	0.069	0.01–0.10	ACE data set52
Prevalence of SMIC	Rectum	0.144	0.05–0.25	ACE data set52
% of LR-SMIC	Colon	0.370	0.20–0.80	ACE data set18 32–34
% of LR-SMIC	Rectum	0.364	0.20–0.60	ACE data set18 32–34
Lesion assessment for SMIC
Sensitivity	All	0.349	0.10–0.83	ACE data set30
Specificity	All	0.984	0.5–0.99	ACE data set30
Effectiveness of WF-EMR
Risk of recurrence—no SMIC	Colon	0.144	0.05–0.25	ACE data set
Risk of recurrence—no SMIC	Rectum	0.189	0.05–0.35	ACE data set
Proportion requiring surgery	Colon	0.011	0.0025–0.10	ACE data set
Proportion requiring surgery	Rectum	0.010	0.0025–0.10	ACE data set
Effectiveness of ESD
Risk of recurrence—no SMIC	Colon	0.020	0.005–0.10	55
Risk of recurrence—no SMIC	Rectum	0.031	0.005–0.15	55
Proportion requiring surgery—no SMIC	Colon	0.015	0.05–0.10	39
Proportion requiring surgery—no SMIC	Rectum	0.020	0.05–0.10	39
Risk of recurrence—LR-SMIC	Colon	0.020	0.05–0.15	56
Risk of recurrence—LR-SMIC	Rectum	0.030	0.05–0.25	56
Effectiveness of transanal resection
Risk of recurrence—no SMIC	Rectum	0.03	0.010–0.050	57
Proportion requiring surgery—no SMIC	Rectum	0.015	0.005–0.010	57
Risk of recurrence—LR-SMIC	Rectum	0.030	0.010–0.050	57
Procedural risks WF-EMR
Perforation requiring surgery	Colon	0.002	0.001–0.010	ACE data set
Perforation requiring surgery	Rectum	0.001	0.001–0.010	ACE data set
Non-surgical complication	Colon	0.076	0.05–0.20	ACE data set
Non-surgical complication	Rectum	0.080	0.05–0.20
Procedural risks ESD
Perforation requiring surgery	Colon	0.010	0.005–0.20	20 55
Perforation requiring surgery	Rectum	0.010	0.005–0.20	20 55
Non-surgical complication	Colon	0.081	0.05–0.20	20 55
Non-surgical complication	Rectum	0.055	0.02–0.20	20 55
Procedural risks transanal resection
Perforation requiring further surgery	Rectum	0.008	0.003–0.10	57
Non-surgical complication	Rectum	0.060	0.05–0.20	57

ACE, Australian Colonic Endoscopic Resection; ESD, endoscopic submucosal dissection; LR-SMIC, low-risk submucosal invasive cancer car; LSL, large laterally spreading lesion; SMIC, submucosal invasive cancer; WF-EMR, wide-field endoscopic mucosal resection.