Table 1

Model inputs and values used in SA

MeanSEAlphaBetaDistributionHigh value in one-way SALow value in one-way SASource
CD-related hospitalisation costs, per admission£8573342961372Gamma£10 288£6859 7
Other direct medical costs, weekly*
 Remission (CDAI <150)£154121Gamma£23£0 16
 Moderate (CDAI ≥150 to <300)£428Gamma£58£0 16
 Severe (CDAI ≥300 to <450)£6613Gamma£91£40 16
 Very severe (CDAI ≥450)£6613Gamma£91£40 16
Adalimumab, cost per 40 mg injection£352.14NoneNoneNoneNoneNone£176.07 17
CRP test£1.97NoneNoneNoneNone£5.53£1.97 18 19
FC test£23.27NoneNoneNoneNone£67.93£23.27 18
Health utility, annual
 Remission (CDAI <150)0.8270.0081747366Beta0.8430.810 26
 Moderate (CDAI ≥150 to <300)0.6470.008Beta0.6630.630 26
 Severe (CDAI ≥300 to <450)0.4670.008Beta0.4830.450 26
 Very severe (CDAI ≥450)0.2870.008Beta0.3030.270 26
Baseline CDAI state distribution
 Remission (CDAI <150)0CALM12
 Moderate (CDAI ≥150 to <300)0.74218163Dirichlet10CALM12
 Severe (CDAI ≥300 to <450)0.25462182Dirichlet00.5CALM12
 Very severe (CDAI ≥450)0.0041243Dirichlet00.5CALM12
  • Transition probability, hospitalisation and absenteeism point estimates were for base-case analysis, parameters for one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses based on regression in online supplementary table S1.

  • *National Health Service paid costs except hospitalisation and adalimumab.

  • †CALM trial data analysis.

  • CALM, Effect of Tight Control Management on Crohn’s Disease trial; CD, Crohn’s disease; CDAI, Crohn’s Disease Activity Index; CRP, C-reactive protein; FC, faecal calprotectin; SA, sensitivity analysis.