Table 4

Operating characteristics of relative change in StrPerimeter and NoLongStr to predict ≥1-stage reduction or increase in fibrosis between baseline and follow-up

Fibrosis-related parametersOutcomeCut-off for relative change (%)Sensitivity (%)Specificity (%)PPV (%)NPV (%)
StrPerimeter≥1-stage reduction in fibrosis*≥0↓57 (8/14)59 (29/49)29 (8/28)83 (29/35)
≥10↓43 (6/14)65 (32/49)26 (6/23)80 (32/40)
≥20↓36 (5/14)71 (35/49)26 (5/19)80 (35/44)
≥30↓36 (5/14)86 (42/49)42 (5/12)82 (42/51)
≥40↓36 (5/14)90 (44/49)50 (5/10)83 (44/53)
≥1-stage increase in fibrosis†≥0↑75 (15/20)55 (35/64)34 (15/44)88 (35/40)
≥10↑70 (14/20)63 (40/64)37 (14/38)87 (40/46)
≥20↑70 (14/20)64 (41/64)38 (14/37)87 (41/47)
≥30↑65 (13/20)67 (43/64)38 (13/34)86 (43/50)
≥40↑55 (11/20)72 (46/64)38 (11/29)84 (46/55)
NoLongStr≥1-stage reduction in fibrosis*≥0↓36 (5/14)55 (27/49)19 (5/27)75 (27/36)
≥10↓36 (5/14)61 (30/49)21 (5/24)77 (30/39)
≥20↓36 (5/14)71 (35/49)26 (5/19)80 (35/44)
≥30↓36 (5/14)80 (39/49)33 (5/15)81 (39/48)
≥40↓29 (4/14)92 (45/49)50 (4/8)82 (45/55)
≥1-stage increase in fibrosis†≥0↑75 (15/20)50 (32/64)32 (15/47)87 (32/37)
≥10↑65 (13/20)58 (37/64)33 (13/40)84 (37/44)
≥20↑65 (13/20)69 (44/64)39 (13/33)86 (44/51)
≥30↑60 (12/20)72 (46/64)40 (12/30)85 (46/54)
≥40↑55 (11/20)75 (48/64)41 (11/27)84 (48/57)
  • *Patients with fibrosis stage 0 were excluded for that specific analysis.

  • †Patients with fibrosis stage 4 were excluded for that specific analysis.

  • NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.