Table 4

Performance of the prediction model

Derivation cohort
(n=8288)*
Validation cohort
(n=2029)
Nagelkerke R20.110.12
Brier score0.040.05
c-statistic (95% CI)0.71 (0.68 to 0.73)0.70 (0.64 to 0.76)
Calibration-in-the-largeNA0.05
Calibration slopeNA1.01
  • Nagelkerke R2 can range from 0 to 1, with 0 denoting that model does not explain any variation and 1 denoting that it perfectly explains the observed variation. The Brier score can range from 0 for a perfect model to 0.25 for a non-informative model with a 50% incidence of the outcome. c-statistic can range from 0.50 for a non-discriminative model to 1 for a perfect model with ≥0.70 as a reasonable discriminative ability. The calibration-in-the-large indicates whether predicted probabilities are systematically too low (value >0) or too high (value <0). The calibration slope indicates whether the model is overfitted (estimated risks too extreme, value <1) or underfitted (estimated risks too close to baseline risk, value >1). A model is perfectly calibrated if the calibration-in-the-large is 0 and calibration slope is 1.

  • *There were missing data in three cases.

  • NA, not applicable.