Table 2

Relative risks of incidence and mortality for each cancer type according to groups and the number needed to screen to prevent one event in the present follow-up period

CharacteristicInvited to screening group (n=338 017)Control group (n=299 483)Screened versus control groupInvited to screening group versus control groupNumber needed to screen (95% CI)‡
Screened (n=113 340)Not screened (n=224 677)
CasesRate (95% CI)*CasesRate (95% CI)*CasesRate (95% CI)*Relative risk (95% CI)†P valueRelative risk (95% CI)†P value
Incidence
 Upper gastrointestinal cancer¶2201327.54 (312.14 to 342.94)5596394.48 (383.31 to 405.66)12 333429.92 (421.97 to 437.86)0.77 (0.74 to 0.81)<0.0010.86 (0.84 to 0.89)<0.00198 (85 to 115)
 Oesophageal cancer1127160.60 (150.09 to 171.11)2896202.60 (194.55 to 210.66)6305219.98 (214.28 to 225.69)0.74 (0.69 to 0.79)<0.0010.85 (0.82 to 0.89)<0.001168 (143 to 206)
 Non-cardia gastric cancer44368.51 (61.23 to 75.79)1426100.61 (94.99 to 106.23)3107103.89 (100.09 to 107.69)0.66 (0.59 to 0.73)<0.0010.88 (0.83 to 0.94)<0.001283 (235 to 359)
 Cardia gastric cancer63496.29 (87.86 to 104.72)127788.48 (83.33 to 93.63)2928100.39 (96.59 to 104.19)0.99 (0.90 to 1.09)0.2130.90 (0.84 to 0.96)0.008NA§
 All-site cancer3899572.95 (552.76 to 593.15)10 302757.34 (741.36 to 773.31)22 051777.46 (766.7 to 788.23)0.75 (0.73 to 0.78)<0.0010.89 (0.86 to 0.91)<0.00149 (45 to 54)
Mortality
 Upper gastrointestinal cancer733108.98 (99.99 to 117.96)2893199.10 (191.21 to 206.99)6386238.22 (232.06 to 244.38)0.43 (0.40 to 0.47)<0.0010.69 (0.66 to 0.72)<0.00177 (72 to 84)
 Oesophageal cancer37252.69 (46.64 to 58.74)1485101.76 (96.10 to 107.42)3317125.07 (120.57 to 129.58)0.40 (0.36 to 0.45)<0.0010.67 (0.63 to 0.71)<0.001138 (127 to 153)
 Non-cardia gastric cancer17527.50 (22.79 to 32.21)83358.34 (54.03 to 62.65)185366.66 (63.49 to 69.83)0.38 (0.33 to 0.45)<0.0010.72 (0.66 to 0.78)<0.001255 (227 to 295)
 Cardia gastric cancer18628.79 (24.11 to 33.46)57539.00 (35.60 to 42.40)121646.48 (43.73 to 49.23)0.58 (0.49 to 0.68)<0.0010.72 (0.65 to 0.80)<0.001565 (447 to 795)
 All-site cancer1475217.46 (204.85 to 230.06)5340381.57 (370.37 to 392.78)11 786433.91 (425.64 to 442.19)0.48 (0.45 to 0.50)<0.0010.72 (0.70 to 0.75)<0.00146 (44 to 49)
 All cause3705565.21 (547.30 to 583.70)13 7131001.79 (985.16 to 1018.70)27 646970.23 (958.86 to 981.74)0.49 (0.47 to 0.51)<0.0010.75 (0.74 to 0.77)<0.00125 (23 to 26)
  • *Rates are per 100 000 person-years and standardised by age, sex and centre.

  • †Relative risks are standardised by age, sex and centre.

  • ‡Number needed to screen to prevent one event in the control group.

  • §Not available.

  • ¶Thirteen patients had both a oesophageal cancer and gastric cancer.