Discriminative abilities for ABC score and AIMS65 and outcomes in classified low-risk and high-risk patients according to cohort
| Cohort | Development (n=3012) | Validation (n=4019) | Validation (n=2336) | |||
| Bleeding site | UGIB | UGIB | LGIB | |||
| Risk score | ABC score | AIMS65 | ABC score | AIMS65 | ABC score | AIMS65 |
| Mean score (95% CI) | 3.5 (0 to 9) | 1.0 (0 to 3) | 4.5(1 to 10) | 1.4 (0 to 3) | 2.6 (0 to 7) | 0.9 (0 to 2) |
| AUROC (95% CI) | 0.86 (0.84 to 0.89) | 0.79 (0.76 to 0.82) | 0.81 (0.78 to 0.83) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.69) | 0.84 (0.79 to 0.89) | 0.75 (0.68 to 0.83) |
| Sensitivity (low risk) | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| Specificity (low risk) | 0.94 | 0.66 | 0.94 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.58 |
| PPV (low risk) | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| NPV (low-risk) | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.076 | 0.073 |
| No (%) classified low-risk patients | 1498 (56) | 1829 (73) | 1369 (40) | 1781 (58) | 1275 (71) | 1296 (80) |
| Mortality in classified low-risk patients; n(%)* | 11 (0.7) | 62 (3.4) | 14 (1.0) | 79 (4.5) | 7 (0.6) | 17 (1.3) |
| Sensitivity (high risk) | 0.49 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 0.22 | 0.58 |
| Specificity (high risk) | 0.93 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| PPV (high risk) | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.073 |
| NPV (high risk) | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| No (%) classified high-risk patients | 267 (10) | 672 (27) | 519 (15) | 1266 (42) | 56 (3.1) | 322 (20) |
| Mortality in classified high-risk patients; n(%)* | 91 (34) | 121 (18) | 129 (25) | 133 (11) | 10 (18) | 23 (7.3) |
*Noted mortality rates reflect 30-day mortality in patients with UGIB and in-hospital mortality in patients with LGIB (see the Methods section).
ABC, age, blood tests and comorbidities; AUROC, area under receiver operating characteristics curves; LGIB, lower gastrointestinal bleeding; NPV, negative predictive values; PPV, positive predictive values; UGIB, upper gastrointestinal bleeding.