Table 3

Impact of per-patient average delays in CRC diagnostic pathway of 2/4/6 months and impact of mitigation via FIT triage

Reference period of disruption (months)12
Duration of background delay (months)246
No FIT prioritisation CRC cases11 226
Deaths attributable to delay65314192250
Life years lost attributable to delay921420 31532 799
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required511 394
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >2 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 96.2%
Specificity: 64.3%
FIT-positive cases10 777
FIT-negative cases449
Deaths attributable to delay265790
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation62713632160
Life years lost attributable to delay3698131312
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation884619 50231 487
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required189 216
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 89.4%
Specificity: 83.5%
FIT-positive cases9991
FIT-negative cases1235
Deaths attributable to delay72156248
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation58112632003
Life years lost attributable to delay101422353608
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation820118 08029 191
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required92 051
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >150 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 65.9%
Specificity: 94.9%
FIT-positive cases7409
FIT-negative cases3817
Deaths attributable to delay222482765
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation4319371485
Life years lost attributable to delay3132690711 152
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation608113 40821 648
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required35 798
  • Assumptions: FIT is applied promptly at presentation in primary care and individuals who are FIT-positive are prioritised such that they experience no pathway delay; individuals who are FIT-negative experience the specified ‘background’ pathway delay ahead of being diagnosed.