Reference period of disruption (months) | 12 | |||
Duration of background delay (months) | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
No FIT prioritisation | CRC cases | 11 226 | ||
Deaths attributable to delay | 653 | 1419 | 2250 | |
Life years lost attributable to delay | 9214 | 20 315 | 32 799 | |
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required | 511 394 | |||
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >2 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 96.2% Specificity: 64.3% | FIT-positive cases | 10 777 | ||
FIT-negative cases | 449 | |||
Deaths attributable to delay | 26 | 57 | 90 | |
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 627 | 1363 | 2160 | |
Life years lost attributable to delay | 369 | 813 | 1312 | |
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 8846 | 19 502 | 31 487 | |
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required | 189 216 | |||
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 89.4% Specificity: 83.5% | FIT-positive cases | 9991 | ||
FIT-negative cases | 1235 | |||
Deaths attributable to delay | 72 | 156 | 248 | |
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 581 | 1263 | 2003 | |
Life years lost attributable to delay | 1014 | 2235 | 3608 | |
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 8201 | 18 080 | 29 191 | |
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required | 92 051 | |||
Prioritisation out of delay of individuals with FIT >150 µg Hb/g
Sensitivity: 65.9% Specificity: 94.9% | FIT-positive cases | 7409 | ||
FIT-negative cases | 3817 | |||
Deaths attributable to delay | 222 | 482 | 765 | |
Deaths mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 431 | 937 | 1485 | |
Life years lost attributable to delay | 3132 | 6907 | 11 152 | |
Lost life years mitigated by FIT prioritisation | 6081 | 13 408 | 21 648 | |
Urgent 2WW colonoscopies required | 35 798 |
Assumptions: FIT is applied promptly at presentation in primary care and individuals who are FIT-positive are prioritised such that they experience no pathway delay; individuals who are FIT-negative experience the specified ‘background’ pathway delay ahead of being diagnosed.