Univariate analysis for progression to advanced neoplasia (AN) within the discovery set
| Variable | n (n=249) | HR (95% CI) | P value |
| Female sex | 85/249 | 1.1 (0.5 to 2.3) | 0.79 |
| Age at LGD diagnosis (years) | (n=249) | ||
| Less than 40 | 16 | 1 | |
| 40–59 | 84 | 0.7 (0.2 to 3.4) | 0.708 |
| 60 or more | 149 | 0.7 (0.2 to 3.1) | 0.656 |
| Duration of UC at LGD diagnosis (years) | (n=247) | ||
| 0–10 | 44 | 1 | |
| 11–20 | 70 | 3.4 (0.7 to 15.1) | 0.116 |
| >20 | 133 | 2.5 (0.6 to 10.6) | 0.229 |
| Presence of concomitant PSC | 13/248 | 2.6 (0.8 to 8.6) | 0.116 |
| Patient exposure to 5-aminosalicylate medication | (n=238) | ||
| None documented | 28 | 1 | |
| 0–10 years | 53 | 1.4 (0.3 to 5.4) | 0.664 |
| >10 years | 157 | 1.2 (0.4 to 4.2) | 0.729 |
| Patient exposure to immunomodulator medication | (n=237) | ||
| None documented | 171 | 1 | |
| 0–10 years | 43 | 2.4 (1.1 to 5.4) | 0.032 |
| >10 years | 23 | 0.8 (0.2 to 3.6) | 0.809 |
| Macroscopic morphology of index LGD | (n=247) | ||
| Polypoid | 142 | 1 | |
| Non-polypoid | 87 | 2.6 (1.2 to 5.7) | 0.016 |
| Invisible | 18 | 4.1 (1.3 to 12.9) | 0.016 |
| Visible index LGD size 10 mm or more | 79/248 | 3.8 (1.8 to 7.9) | 0.0004 |
| Location of index LGD | (n=243) | ||
| Distal to splenic flexure | 115 | 1 | |
| Proximal to splenic flexure | 128 | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.4) | 0.27 |
| Index LGD not endoscopically resected or incomplete resection | 40/249 | 4.7 (2.2 to 10) | <0.0001 |
| Multifocal LGD at index diagnosis | 61/249 | 3.2 (1.6 to 6.5) | 0.002 |
| Previous diagnosis of indefinite for dysplasia | 12/249 | 4.3 (1.5 to 12.5) | 0.007 |
| Presence of a colonic stricture | 8/249 | 5.5 (1.7 to 18.6) | 0.006 |
| Scarring/tubular/shortened colon | 137/249 | 1.6 (0.7 to 3.3) | 0.251 |
| Moderate to severe histological active inflammation severity at time of or within previous 5 years of LGD diagnosis | 62/247 | 3.6 (1.7 to 7.6) | 0.0006 |
| Cumulative inflammation burden (CIB)* (HR per 2-unit increase in CIB) | (n=177) | 3.8 (1.8 to 8.0) | 0.0004 |
| Multiple postinflammatory polyps | 88/241 | 1.5 (0.7 to 3.2) | 0.26 |
Risk factors for LGD progression to high-grade dysplasia or colorectal cancer (univariate Cox regression analysis—30/249 AN). Statistical significance required p<0.003 with Bonferroni multiple testing correction (bold values).
*HR per 2-unit increase in cumulative inflammatory burden (equivalent to increase of 2 years of continuous mild, 1 year of continuous moderate or 8 months of continuous severe active disease).
LGD, low-grade dysplasia; PSC, primary sclerosing cholangitis.