Table 4

Risk of all-cause mortality in the NAFLD-only subgroup*

Simple steatosis (ref.)*
n=7105
NASH without fibrosis*
n=1218
Non-cirrhotic fibrosis*
n=1658
Cirrhosis*
n=587
P for trend†
Deaths, N.2823478637400--
Incidence rate‡, per 1000 PY (95% CI)25.2 (24.3 to 26.2)30.3 (27.7 to 33.1)35.3 (32.6 to 38.1)70.5 (63.9 to 77.5)--
Incidence rate difference‡ (95% CI)0 (ref.)5.1 (2.2 to 7.9)10.0 (7.2 to 12.9)45.3 (38.3 to 52.2)--
20-Year absolute risk difference§, % (95% CI)0 (ref.)7.9 (1.1 to 14.6)14.9 (7.5 to 22.3)38.7 (21.2 to 56.2)--
Multivariable-adjusted HR¶ (95% CI)1 (ref.)1.14 (1.03 to 1.26)1.26 (1.15 to 1.38)1.95 (1.75 to 2.18)<0.01
  • Main figure 1.

  • Cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality according to the presence and histologic severity of NAFLD.

  • *NAFLD was defined by liver histology as outlined in the online supplemental eMethods.

  • †P for linear trend was estimated across NAFLD histology categories (modelled continuously), compared with simple steatosis; for details, see Methods.

  • ‡CIs for incidence rates and absolute rate differences were approximated by the normal distribution.

  • §20-Year absolute risks and risk differences (percentage points) were calculated based on Kaplan-Meier estimates.

  • ¶The multivariable model accounted for the covariates outlined in the footnotes to table 2.

  • NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; PY, person years; ref, referent.