Background: Several biological markers and clinical scoring systems have been used to predict the course of acute pancreatitis. Because organ failure is the most severe complication of the disease, prognostic markers and their combinations that would predict organ failure on hospital admission were sought.
Methods: Some 351 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis were studied. Blood samples were taken within 12 h of admission. This case-control study included all 33 patients with organ failure and 99 matched controls without organ failure. Measurements included 19 prognostic markers and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score.
Results: Plasma interleukin 10, serum glucose and serum calcium were identified as independent predictors of organ failure by logistic regression analysis. Calcium level correlated with clinical onset of organ failure. The combination of interleukin 10 (more than 50 pg/ml) or calcium (less than 1.65 mmol/l) was a significantly better predictor than any single marker or APACHE II score, with a sensitivity of 88 per cent, specificity 93 per cent and diagnostic odds ratio 94.
Conclusion: Organ failure in acute pancreatitis can be predicted with high accuracy at hospital admission using a combination of plasma interleukin 10 and serum calcium measurements.