Background: Although the natural history of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) remains unclear, large surgical series have reported malignancy in 40% to 90% of main pancreatic duct (MPD)-involved IPMN. Accordingly, the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines recommend surgical resection in patients with suspected MPD involvement. We hypothesized that nonoperative management of select patients with suspected MPD-involved IPMN might be indicated.
Study design: From 1992 to 2012, 362 patients underwent surgical resection for pathologically confirmed IPMN at a single academic center. A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was performed. Main pancreatic duct involvement was suspected with an MPD diameter ≥5 mm on preoperative imaging. A multivariate analysis was conducted to assess predictors of malignancy.
Results: Of 362 patients, 334 had complete data for analysis. Main pancreatic duct involvement was suspected preoperatively in 171 patients. Final pathology revealed 20% high-grade dysplastic and 27% invasive IPMN (47% malignant). Preoperative cytopathology and serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 independently predicted malignancy (p = 0.003 and p = 0.002, respectively) and invasiveness (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Patients with both negative preoperative cytopathology and normal serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (ie, double negatives) had a lower rate of malignancy and invasiveness (28% and 8% vs 58% and 38%; p < 0.0001). The MPD diameter did not predict malignancy or invasiveness (p = 0.36 and p = 0.46, respectively).
Conclusions: Patients with suspected MPD-involved IPMN have a highly variable rate of malignancy. Despite recent International Consensus Guidelines recommendations, these data suggest that MPD diameter is not an optimal gauge of malignant risk. Nonoperative management of suspected MPD-involved IPMN in select patients, particularly double negatives, might be indicated. Depending on age and comorbidity, operative risk might outweigh the risk of malignant progression in these patients.
Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.