Annual deaths from climate change could reach half a million by 2030

More than 300 000 people are dying each year, and millions more endure ill health as a result of climate change, says the first report to focus exclusively on the human impact of global warming.

The report, from the Global Humanitarian Forum, says that most of the deaths are caused by malnutrition, diarrhoea, and malaria. It estimates that 90% are the result of gradual environmental changes, with 10% attributable to weather disasters. The health of another 235 million people is being seriously affected.

The report predicts that by 2030 the annual death toll could rise to 500 000, with 660 million people seriously affected, making it the “biggest emerging humanitarian challenge in the world.”

Launching the report in London last week, the forum’s president, Kofi Annan, said that climate change was not a distant threat. “It’s happening now and it is having an impact on millions of people around the globe.”

He added, “The first hit and worst affected are the world’s poorest groups and yet they have done least to cause the problem.”

The new climate change deal to replace the Kyoto protocol, due to be hammered out in Copenhagen in December, must be global, safe, fair, and binding, he said. “The alternative is mass starvation, mass migration, and mass sickness.”

The report says that global warming is leading to increased desertification, rising sea levels, and many weather related disasters. These in turn create conditions in which disease flourishes.

The biggest cause of death from climate change is malnutrition, with an estimated 150 000 deaths a year and a further 45 million people affected. Diarrhoea, linked mainly to problems with water quality and quantity, affects 180 million people a year and causes 95 000 deaths. Climate change is also thought to be responsible for 55 000 deaths from malaria a year, and a further 10 million people a year catch the disease.

The impact is greatest on women, young people, and older people. Women account for two thirds of the world’s poor and also make up seven out of 10 agricultural workers. More than 90% of deaths from malnutrition and diarrhoea occur in children aged 5 or under.

The areas most prone to climate change, according to latest findings, are Africa, South Asia, parts of the Middle East, and many small islands in the Pacific.

The forum’s report is based on a range of recent publications and projections by climate change experts. Its figures represent averages based on projected trends over many years but carry a significant margin of error. But it points out that, given the accelerating pace of global warming, its predictions “may prove too conservative.”